Russian Tanks Attacked - A Russian T-72B3 tank fires as soldiers take part in an exercise on Wednesday at the Kadamovskiy base in northern Russia's Rostov region. AP
With more than 100,000 Russian troops stationed on Ukraine's border, President Vladimir Putin is keeping the West guessing: Will he choose a full invasion or a limited operation or just keep Russian troops to keep pressure on Kyiv and the West?
Russian Tanks Attacked
Enjoying a large military advantage over Ukraine's small, limited frontline forces, Russia has a number of options if Putin decides to launch an attack, depending on Moscow's needs, the price it is willing to pay and how the West responds, experts say. . .
Photos: Shelling, Blasts As Russia Steps Up Ukraine Attacks
With Russia's formidable air and naval power, any offensive would likely include bombing, missile strikes and cyber attacks that could destroy Ukrainian military infrastructure, disrupt communications and pin down ground forces.
"It's an incredibly large force on the border," much larger than the one that invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014, said Philip Breedlove, a retired US Air Force general who served as NATO chief from 2013 to 2016. .
"You have a Ukrainian military on the ground that has gotten better, more capable," since 2014, said Breedlove, who is now at the Middle East Institute, a Washington, DC-based think tank. "But the Russians would own the air and the sea."
It remains possible that Russia could withdraw its troops, although Moscow's tough language suggests otherwise. After talks with the American ambassadors on Monday and with NATO members on Wednesday, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Sergey Ryabkov, told RTVI of Russia that there was no reason to organize further talks with America and NATO because of what they say is their refusal to comply with Moscow's demands. back to the world. 1997 situation in European security.
A Timeline Of Russia's Stand Off With Ukraine
Short of a full invasion and occupation of eastern Ukraine, Russia may decide to take a few steps that could increase its influence over Kyiv and try to improve Western and trans-Atlantic cooperation, Breedlove and other experts say.
Before Russia launches an attack, it will likely accuse Ukraine of provocation, giving Putin a presumptive reason to act, experts say. Former US diplomats, retired generals and Russian experts disagree on what Putin would like to do, but point to several possibilities:
Most of Ukraine's combat forces are stationed along the "contact line" in the eastern region of Donbass, where they face separatists from Moscow. If the Kremlin quickly moves military forces to the west of the front line, it could cut off and capture most of Ukraine's ground forces without taking major cities, experts said.
If Russian forces moved quickly to stop Ukrainian ground forces, they could take prisoners and seize weapons and equipment, said Scott Boston, a defense analyst at the Rand Corp. think tank.
Russian Tank Manufacturer Uralvagonzavod May Have Run Out Of Parts
"It could be a major blow to the capabilities of the Ukrainian military," Boston said. Fighting in eastern Ukraine began after pro-Russian separatists declared independence in Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east of the country two months after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014. NATO and Ukraine say Russia launched a cross-border shelling attack. , armed the separatists and transferred weapons and personnel to the area. Moscow denies any involvement.
While international attention has focused on Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine, Moscow has been increasing its naval forces near Ukraine's coast, including amphibious forces and naval forces, experts said.
"The sea is the weakest point in Ukraine," said Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert in Kyiv. The Russians "can do whatever they want in the Black Sea".
Russian naval forces control the Sea of Azov, a narrow body of water between Ukraine and Russia, where Ukraine's relatively modest military presence is overwhelming.
Ukraine Warns Russia Has 'almost Completed' Build Up Of Forces Near Border
Moscow is increasingly restricting the passage of Ukrainian-bound ships in the area, and experts say Russia could close the southeastern ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, limiting the main shipping route.
In the Black Sea, west of occupied Crimea, Russian warships can cut off the Ukrainian ports of Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherson, which are important routes to international markets. Such a move is in Russia's naval power, and could bring Ukraine's economy to its knees, former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk warned in June.
The Russian naval operation may include the seizure of a small island in the Black Sea known as Snake Island, or Zmiyiniy Ostriv. Ukraine controls Snake Island, allowing Kyiv to take up to 12 kilometers of seawater from the island and helping to protect shipping lanes to the Black Sea coast.
In addition to suffocating Ukraine's commercial ports, Russia may launch further operations in the south to include its annexation of Crimea, experts say. Russian troops may move to secure the canal that Kyiv closed in 2014. The closure of the canal has created a water crisis on the Russian peninsula. Moscow may also try to build an underground bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, perhaps linking it with territory held by pro-Russian separatists.
The Graveyard Of Russian Tanks » Wavell Room
"The idea of building an underground bridge and taking that water, I think it's on the table," Breedlove said.
Putin could command Russian troops in isolated areas in the east in a symbolic show of force. Western governments and Ukrainian officials say Russian forces and Russian-armed proxies are already on the ground. By moving into areas clearly controlled by the separatists, Russia can keep tensions with Kyiv high without inflaming them, Breedlove and other experts said.
In addition, Russia may seek to expand the territory controlled by the separatists, as well as take over communications centers or power plants, which would make the region more functional as an independent quasi-state.
A Ukrainian soldier is in front of Russian-backed separatists on Tuesday near Lugansk in Donetsk region. Anatolii Stepanov / AFP - Getty Images
If Russia Launches An Attack On Ukraine, What Might It Look Like? Here Are Some Possibilities
"The most likely military position in my view would be a series of operations that they can stop at any point down the road depending on how the West reacts," said Ben Hodges, a retired military diplomat who was the head of the US military. Europe from 2014 to 2017.
Taking a small or strategic location, such as Snake Island in the Black Sea, the waterway to Crimea or areas close to the disputed territory, and pausing would reduce the risk of casualties and make it "difficult for the West to respond," Hodges said. , who is now at the Center for European Political Analysis.
Moscow may try to gamble that less action would undermine NATO cooperation, as other European governments may be reluctant to impose tougher sanctions on the issue, Hodges said. Without a sharp response, Russia could continue with other activities.
In the worst case scenario, Russia would launch an air and ground campaign in Ukraine to take over the entire Donbass region east of the Dnieper River.
U.s. Will Help Transfer Soviet Made Tanks To Ukraine
A large-scale invasion and occupation — what Hodges, a retired general, calls the "big red arrow" through Ukraine — is rare, and it's not clear that Russia has enough power to hold that much ground, many experts said.
But under Putin's regime, Russia once invaded Ukraine by force, then attacked Georgia in 2008. It also intervened in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In any case, Western governments were surprised. And in each case, the threat of sanctions failed to deter Putin.
"Sanctions are a weak deterrent and have consistently failed to deter Russia from using violence in Ukraine and elsewhere," said Michael Kofman, research director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a Washington think tank.
Given Putin's record, there is no reason to restrict further access to Ukraine, Kofman said. Russia's invasion of Georgia 14 years ago provides a stark analogy for a similar operation in Ukraine, he said. In 2008, Russia launched a major military offensive to prevent the Georgian government from resuming control of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the operation succeeded in halting political outcomes in favor of Moscow.
Russia Has Lost 50,000 Soldiers In Ukraine, U.k. Military Chief Says
If Russia were to decide on a major operation, it could choose to defend the cities for a long time and only withdraw after striking Ukrainian forces, some experts said.
Previous small-scale developments have failed to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine or achieve Moscow's political goals, Kofman said. "If they failed to force Ukraine to make the necessary results by seizing half of Donbass, what exactly would happen with some limited intervention?" she said.
Russia could take over much of the east and demand a new political system from Kyiv or simply expand the area, as it did with Crimea, experts said.
At this time, the construction of Russia continues. Military analysts say that Russia is sending teams from the east of the country by train to the western region near Ukraine. A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier was destroyed in front of a burned-out school after Kharkiv was hit by a missile. [Vitaliy Gnidyi/Reuters]
Russia Positioning Helicopters, In Possible Sign Of Ukraine Plans
A large convoy of
Ww1 russian tanks, russian tortoise tanks, russian tanks for sale, war thunder russian tanks, painting russian tanks, russian experimental tanks, russian tanks pictures, russian world of tanks, russian tanks, inflatable russian tanks, russian tanks in ukraine, russian toy tanks
0 Comments